Remarks / Observations
– German ZEW survey in November mixed. Stressed that the domestic recovery loses momentum as the end of the year approaches, but that optimism persists.
– German trade data for September shows that the export sector is still shaking.
– awaiting data on US inflation and speeches from the various central bankers; dealers note that the data could fuel speculation the Fed was getting closer to an interest rate hike.
– Japan current account balance: 1.03T against 1.06Te.
– China Economic Daily said China will not follow the US Fed on tightening monetary policy.
– BRC October sales in the UK like-for-like Y / Y: -0.2% vs. -0.4% previously.
– German Council of Economic Advisers reduced GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.1% to 2.7% citing supply shortages while increasing GDP growth in 2022 from 4.1% to 4 , 6%.
– ECB chief Lagarde reiterated his confidence that the current high inflation was transitory.
– BOE Gov Bailey: Much of the rise in inflation is linked to reopening after closings.
– France Fin Min Le Maire proposed an automatic energy price stabilization system to protect consumers.
–President Biden has said he will decide on the appointment of the Fed chairman before Thanksgiving. Fed’s Brainard (Dove) has been interviewed by President Biden and is said to have been running for Fed chairman.
Speakers / Fixed income / FX / Commodities / Erratum
Indices [Stoxx600 +0.14% at 484.26, FTSE +0.12% at 7,309.23, DAX +0.24% at 16,084.40, CAC-40 +0.15% at 7,057.99, IBEX-35 +0.39% at 9,106.50, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 27,682.00, SMI +0.22% at 12,381.10, S&P 500 Futures +0.01%].
Market focal points / Key themes: European indices opened slightly lower overall, but then reversed to trade slightly higher; the best performing sectors include healthcare and industries; the sectors leading to the downside are consumer discretionary and utilities; focus on the next central bank conference; earnings expected in the next US session include Clear Channel, EchoStar, DR Horton and Cardinal Health.
– Consumer Discretionary: Associated British Foods [ABF.UK] + 7% (gains), crossroads [CA.FR] + 1% (update of the strategy), Basic fit [BFIT.NL] -4% (participation sale).
– Finances: Munich Re [MUV2.DE] -3% (gains).
– Industrial: Renault [RNO.FR] + 5% (Nissan results), Bayer [BAYN.DE] + 2% (gains), Rolls-Royce Holdings [RR.UK] + 4% (financing of reactors secured), Continental [CON.DE] + 4% (large order for displays).
– ECB Panetti (Italy) said the digital euro would likely be legal tender.
– ECB Enria (Head of SSM) said the European banking sector was taking action on costs. I was seeing foam in certain market segments.
– France End Min The Mayor said they still need budget support in some areas.
– Central Bank of Norway (Norges) Financial Stability Report: The national financial system has weathered the pandemic well. Norway’s biggest banks could get through a sharp downturn without having to tighten their lending significantly. High household indebtedness was seen as the main weakness of the system.
– Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Gov Nabiullina said the digital ruble would be legal tender and look to replace Crypto, not banks. She noted that cryptocurrencies, stablecoins pose risks to financial stability.
– Official Sura of the Central Bank of Poland said it may be necessary to raise the base rate above 1.50% to bring inflation under control.
– Hardt of the central bank of Poland said it would likely raise rates in December.
– Japan PM Kishida said who sought to achieve growth and improve public finances in the medium term.
– Japan Econ Min Yamagiwa said the prime minister had ordered the state-set wage increase to be included in the new economic stimulus package.
– China PBoC Gouv Yi Gang said it would test the impact of the eCNY on monetary policy and the financial market. He added that E-CNY should be market driven.
Currency / Fixed Income
– The USD was initially weaker as the session began on reports that the Fed’s Brainard was interviewed by Chairman Biden last week and was a candidate to become Fed chairman. Such a move would suggest a more accommodating Fed.
– EUR / USD at 1.1585 mid-session after testing 1.1606 in Asia. Germany’s November ZEW survey indicated that the domestic recovery was losing momentum as the end of the year approached. Dealers are awaiting data on US inflation over the next few days, which could fuel speculation the Fed is getting closer to an interest rate hike. Last week, various central banks pushed back expectations of rate hikes from market participants.
– GBP / USD was trying to regain a foothold above the 1.36 area as USD / JPY collapsed to test 112.72 in Asia.
– (FR) Banque de France Oct Industrial (Business) Sentiment: 102 v 100th.
– (DE) German current account balance in September: € 19.6bn versus € 17.0bn; Trade balance: € 16.2bn compared to € 16.0m; M / M exports: -0.7% v 0.0% e; M / M imports: 0.1% against 0.5% e.
– (DK) Denmark September current account balance (DKK): 16.1 M against 15.1 B previously; Trade balance: 12.8 billion against 1.1 billion previously.
– (NO) Norway Q3 Average monthly profit Y / Y: 3.2% against 2.1% previously.
– (FR) France Sept trade balance: – € 6.8bn compared to – € 7.1bn; Current account balance: – € 2.7 billion against – € 1.4 billion previously.
– (HU) Hungary Oct. CPI M / M: 1.1% vs. 0.8% e; Y / Y: 6.5% vs. 6.2% e (7th month above target range and highest in almost a decade).
– (SE) Sweden Seven Private Sector Production M / M: + 1.9% vs. -3.9% previously; Y / Y: 6.0% against 4.1% previously.
– (SE) Sweden Seven industrial orders M / M: -2.0% against -2.9% previously; Y / Y: 0.9% against 2.2% previously.
– (SE) Sweden Seven Value of industrial production Y / Y: 3.9% against 1.2% previously; Y / Y service output value: 7.0% vs. 5.9% previously.
– (SE) Sweden Sept. Household consumption M / M: + 0.1% against -0.4% previously; Y / Y: 4.4% against 4.8% previously.
– (CZ) Czech international reserves for October: 171.6 billion dollars against 169.2 billion dollars previously.
– (DE) Germany Nov ZEW Survey on the current situation: 12.5 against 20.0e; Expectation survey: 31.7 v 18.0e.
– (EU) Survey on the expectations of the euro zone in November ZEW: 25.9 against 21.0 previously.
– (HU) Hungary Oct YTD Budget balance (HUF): -2.922T against -2.292T before.
Issue of fixed income securities
– (PE) Peru sell 15-year social bonds denominated in EUR via a syndicate.
– (NL) Dutch Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 1.835 billion euros compared to 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros in 0% DSL bonds from January 2038; Average return: 0.118% vs. 0.188% previously (unionized April 13, 2021).
– (ZA) South Afrique sold in total 3.9 billion ZAR against 3.9 billion ZAR indicated in the 2035, 2040 and 2048 bonds.
– (RO) Decision of the Central Bank of Romania (NBR) on interest rates: should increase the interest rate by 50bp to 2.00%.
– 05:15 (CH) Switzerland sells 3-month bills.
– 5.25 am (EU) Daily liquidity statistics from the ECB.
– 05:30 (HU) The Hungarian Debt Agency (AKK) sells 3-month bonds.
– 05; 30 (DE) Germany will sell 6.0 billion euros at 0% in September 2023 Schatz.
– 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3 and 12 month invoices.
– 5:30 a.m. (EU) ECB award as part of the 7-day Main Refinancing Call (MRO).
– 6:00 am (US) October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: 99.5 ev 99.1 before.
– 06h00 (FI) Finland will sell 1.0 billion euros combined in 6 and 9 month bills.
– 6:30 a.m. (EU) ESM sells 1.1 billion euros in 12-month bonds.
– 6:55 am (United States) Correction of the daily Libor.
– 07h00 (MX) Mexico Oct CPI M / M: 0.8% ev 0.6% before; Y / Y: 6.2% ev 6.0% before; CPI Core M / M: 0.5% ev 0.5% before.
– 07h00 (TR) Turkey will sell bonds.
– 08:00 (UK) Russia Oct. Official reserve assets: 623.0 Be vs. $ 614.1 billion previously.
– 08h00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
– 08h00 (EU) The head of the ECB Lagarde.
– 08:30 (United States) Oct PPI Final demand M / M: 0.6% ev 0.5% before; Y / Y: 8.6% ev 8.6% before.
– 08:30 (US) Oct PPI (excluding power / energy) M / M: 0.5% ev 0.2% before; Y / Y: 6.8% ev 6.8% before.
– 08:30 (US) Oct PPI (excluding food / energy / commerce) M / M: 0.2% ev 0.1% before; Y / Y: No is v 5.9% before.
– 08:30 (UR) Ukraine Oct CPI H / M: 0.9% ev 1.2% before; Y / Y: 11.08% ev 11.0% before.
– 8:55 am (US) Weekly Redbook LFL sales data.
– 09h00 (EU) Weekly foreign exchange reserves of the ECB.
– 9:00 a.m. (United States) Head of Fed Powell.
– 10h00 (MX) Mexico Weekly data from the international reserve.
– 1:00 p.m. (US) The Treasury will sell US notes to sell 10-year notes.
– 2:00 p.m. (AR) Argentina Sept Industrial production Y / Y: Not estimated against 13.8% before; Y / Y construction activity: No is v 22.7% before.
– 4:30 p.m. (US) Weekly API oil inventories.
– 6:00 p.m. (KR) South Korea Oct Unemployment rate: 3.1% ev 3.0% before.
– 6.30pm (AU) Australia Nov Consumer Confidence Index: not version 104.6 before.
– 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct M2 Money supply Y / Y: 4.0% ev 4.2% before; M3 Y / Y money supply: 3.7% ev 3.8% before.
– 8:30 p.m. (CN) China Oct CPI Y / Y: 1.4% in ev 1.2% before; IPP Y / Y: 12.3% ev 10.7% before.
– 10 p.m. (KR) South Korea Oct. Total bank loans to households (KRW): no estimate against 1053T before – 10 p.m. (CN) China to sell 2-year and 5-year Upsize bonds.